In the Friday late night update, there haven’t been any significant changes at the box office compared to the midday update. Barbie continues to dominate with an estimated second weekend between $90M-$94M at 4,337 theaters. This is a drop of 44% from the previous weekend, but Barbie has been consistently earning over $20M daily during weekdays, similar to Marvel movies. On Friday, Barbie is projected to make $28M, which is a 60% decrease from the previous Friday. However, Barbie’s second weekend gross is not far behind the $90.4M weekend two earnings of Beauty and the Beast. Last year at this time, all films combined earned $97.9M for the weekend, and Barbie alone could contribute to a total of $160M-$170M this weekend.
There is concern about potential disruptions in the box office due to the ongoing strike between SAG-AFTRA and AMPTP. This could impact big releases like Dune: Part Two and Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom, which may be moved to the 2023 calendar. Oppenheimer, a 3-hour period drama from Universal, is projected to earn $13.5M on its second Friday (-58%) and $46M on its second weekend (-44%), bringing its ten-day total to $173.8M at 3,647 theaters.
Disney’s Haunted Mansion is expected to earn $10M on Friday and have a 3-day total of $25M at 3,740 theaters. A24’s horror film Talk to Me is projected to make around $4M on Friday (including Thursday previews) and around $10M for the weekend at 2,340 theaters. Both films have received a B+ CinemaScore, with Talk to Me performing solidly for a horror film.
Despite being a successful reboot, Haunted Mansion’s performance is not a significant improvement compared to the 2003 version, which opened with $24.2M and grossed $75.8M. Barbie’s strong performance may have impacted Haunted Mansion’s box office numbers. The fall/holiday box office could face challenges if major schedule changes, like Sony moving Kraven the Hunter and the Ghostbusters sequel to 2024, occur.
Sony has made strategic decisions to release Gran Turismo on August 25 to avoid competition with Barbie and Oppenheimer. Sony has several films scheduled for the fall, including Dumb Money on September 22, Journey to Bethlehem on November 11, Thanksgiving on November 17, Napoleon on November 22, and Anyone But You on December 15.
In other box office news, Sound of Freedom from Angel Studios is in its fourth weekend and is expected to earn $4M on Friday and have a 3-day total of $13.3M, bringing its total to $149.7M. Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One is seeing a third Friday of $3M, a third weekend of $11.1M, and a total of $139.6M.
In the Friday morning update, Barbie earned $21.2M on Thursday (-8% from Wednesday) and ended its first week with $258.3M. It is projected to become the fastest female demo feature to reach $300M, surpassing Beauty and the Beast’s 10-day record. Haunted Mansion had early previews on Wednesday, earning $3.1M. Presales indicated a start of $30M, but it remains to be seen if Barbie will affect its family audience. Haunted Mansion’s early figures are similar to Jungle Cruise and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. Early audience reactions to Haunted Mansion are positive, with 79% giving it a positive rating on PostTrak.
Overall, the box office is experiencing one of the best holdover weekends ever since Avengers: Endgame, with Barbie and Oppenheimer generating strong presales and ticket sales.